Five Signals Shaping Cross-Border Treasury Today

Trade Wire — 18 February 2026 IMF upgrades 2026 growth but warns of uneven terrain. Central banks hold rates. Trump tariffs reprice Asia corridors. Ocean freight tips shipper-favourable. And winter storms are quietly destroying your inland margins.

If you run a treasury desk at an import/export business, this is what matters right now — and what to do about it.

1. IMF Upgrades 2026 Growth to 3.3% — But "Sturdy" Isn't "Safe"

The IMF's January 2026 World Economic Outlook nudged global growth up to 3.3% for 2026, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from October. The headline looks comforting. Underneath it, the picture is fractured.

Advanced economies are projected at just 1.8%. The US leads at 2.4% — propped up by AI-driven investment and fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — while the eurozone limps along at 1.3% under persistent structural headwinds. Japan is decelerating to 0.7%. China clocks 4.5%, upgraded on the back of stimulus and reduced effective US tariff rates following the bilateral de-escalation agreement.

Global inflation is expected to ease from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% this year, but the US will lag — tariff pass-through and sticky services inflation mean the Fed's 2% target won't be reached until 2027.

What this means for your treasury: The demand environment for your goods is stable — not booming, not collapsing. That's the good news. The bad news: "uneven" growth means your receivables calendar and your payables calendar are operating in different economic realities. A UK exporter shipping to the US faces a strengthening demand corridor. The same exporter shipping to the eurozone is selling into a 1.3% growth economy with a manufacturing sector still absorbing the energy price shock from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Action: Segment your FX exposure by corridor. Stop hedging your entire book as a single position. The USD receivables corridor and the EUR receivables corridor need different strategies right now.

2. Central Banks Signal Extended Rate Holds — Borrowing Relief Isn't Coming Soon

The Fed held steady at 3.5%–3.75% at its January meeting, pausing after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Two governors — Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, both Trump appointees — dissented, voting for another 25bps cut, but the majority held firm. Markets are pricing the next cut for June at the earliest, with at most two reductions for the full year.

The ECB and Bank of England are on similar trajectories: gradual, data-dependent, and in no rush.

Chair Powell's term expires in May, and President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as his successor. The transition creates a layer of policy uncertainty that markets haven't fully priced. Warsh is historically hawkish, but the political environment is pushing dovish. The Fed's composition is already shifting — Wells Fargo's analysis tags the current FOMC as four neutrals, six doves, and two hawks.

What this means for your treasury: If you're an importer carrying inventory financed at variable rates, relief isn't around the corner. Your carrying costs stay elevated through at least mid-year. For exporters, higher rates in developed markets strengthen the USD and GBP against emerging-market currencies — which can improve your competitiveness on price but compress margins if your supply chain costs are denominated in those same currencies.

Hedging costs remain elevated. Forward points on major pairs reflect the rate differential, meaning locking in rates 6–12 months out carries a premium that wasn't there 18 months ago.

Action: Review your hedging tenor. If you've been rolling 12-month forwards on autopilot, the cost-of-carry calculation has changed. Shorter-tenor hedges with rolling extensions may deliver better economics in a "higher for longer" environment.

3. Trump 2.0 Tariff Agenda Is Quietly Repricing Your Supply Chain

The tariff landscape has shifted materially since the de-escalation agreements of mid-2025, but the structural changes are still working through supply chains:

• Chinese de minimis shipments now face effective duties of 54% after the elimination of the $800 exemption threshold — fundamentally altering the economics of small-parcel, direct-to-consumer imports from China.
• Steel and aluminium tariffs remain elevated, with secondary effects rippling through construction, automotive, and manufacturing inputs across North America.
• India has secured a conditional tariff reduction tied to commitments on oil sourcing and market access — creating a new, preferential trade corridor that is already redirecting payment flows.

The net effect: Asia-to-North-America supply chains are being rerouted in real time. Southeast Asia is absorbing capacity that previously flowed through Chinese export hubs. India is emerging as a beneficiary corridor, with US-India payment flows reportedly surging 14% in recent months.

What this means for your treasury: Your supplier geography is changing, which means your currency exposure is changing. If your Chinese suppliers are rerouting through Vietnam, Malaysia, or Indonesia, you now have VND, MYR, or IDR settlement requirements that didn't exist 12 months ago. These are thinner, more volatile corridors with wider spreads at most banks.

Action: Audit your supplier payment currencies against your current FX infrastructure. If you're still running everything through a single bank relationship that charges 150bps on emerging-market pairs, the tariff-driven supply chain reroute is costing you twice — once on duties, once on FX.

4. Ocean Freight Turns Shipper-Favourable — Use the Window

Container spot rates have given back their early-2026 gains. The Freightos Baltic Index shows Asia-US West Coast rates tumbled 21% in the latest week to approximately $1,916 per FEU, while Asia-US East Coast rates dropped 10% to $3,457. The global composite price index fell 7% between late January and early February.

The drivers: weak post-Lunar New Year demand, fleet overcapacity (the global container fleet grew 3.6% in 2025 against just 3% demand growth), and carriers announcing blank sailings to try to stem the bleeding. Maersk reported its first quarterly loss in years on a 23% drop in freight rates. The carrier is restructuring into three separate business units and cutting 1,000 jobs.

A significant wildcard: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are rerouting the ME11 service through the Red Sea and Suez starting mid-February 2026. If more carriers follow, the reabsorption of Cape-route capacity could create temporary congestion at European hubs — and brief upward pressure on Asia-Europe rates.

What this means for your treasury: Lower freight costs directly improve your landed cost calculations and should flow through to better gross margins — if you act now. Spot rates are cyclical, and the current shipper-favourable environment is a window, not a permanent state. Carriers are actively managing capacity, and any return of Red Sea traffic through Suez will temporarily tighten European port capacity.

Action: If you're negotiating annual ocean freight contracts, this is your moment. Lock in rates while carriers are under pressure. And recalculate your landed costs with current freight data — the numbers from Q4 2025 are already stale.

5. North American Trucking Rates Spike — Your Inland Margin Is Under Pressure

Winter storms across North America have driven dry-van truckload rates up 20–30% year-on-year, with reefer rates spiking even harder. Inland capacity is tight, rail terminal backlogs from the recent storms are creating cascading delays, and perishable-goods importers are facing demurrage exposure at port.

The National Retail Federation projects March container volumes will dip 5% month-on-month, with Q1 demand trailing year-ago levels by 7%. That should eventually ease inland pressure — but not before the current storm-driven disruption works through the system.

What this means for your treasury: You may have locked in a competitive ocean freight rate, but if your inland logistics costs spike 25%, the savings evaporate. For importers of temperature-sensitive goods — food, pharmaceuticals, chemicals — the reefer rate surge directly compresses margins on shipments that are already in transit.

This is also a currency timing issue. If your port-to-warehouse transit time extends by 48–72 hours due to trucking delays, your FX settlement window shifts. A rate you locked against a specific delivery date is now misaligned.

Action: Coordinate your logistics and treasury desks. If inland delays are extending your delivery-to-settlement window, your FX hedges need to reflect that. A 72-hour delay on a $500,000 shipment with GBP/USD moving 50 pips is real money.

The Bottom Line

The macro environment is stable but fractured. Growth is positive but uneven. Rates are on hold. Tariffs are reshaping corridors. Freight is softening. And winter weather is a reminder that supply chain risk doesn't stop at the port.

The treasurers who outperform won't be the ones with the best forecasts. They'll be the ones who segment their exposure by corridor, match their hedge tenors to the rate environment, and coordinate logistics timing with FX execution.

That's what Unicorn Currencies is built for.

Trade Wire is published daily by the Unicorn Currencies Strategy Desk. For real-time FX alerts and corridor intelligence, access the platform.